This is not a nice story.
It is about a seemingly innocuous topic – Trifectas – but if what I am about to infer or suggest is true the ramifications run deep, real deep, right into the inner circle of the property developer spivs of Brisvegas, across through the banking and finance industries, and deep into the halls of the House of Broken Dreams.
A trifecta is an ‘exotic’ or ‘multiple’ bet that requires a punter to select the 1st, 2nd and 3rd horses to cross the finishing line in the correct order.
A winning trifecta bet always pays more lucrative dividend than a simple win or place bet due to the greater improbability of a punter selecting the first three placed horses in their exact finishing order than simply picking the 1st placed horse in any given race. As my mate Rusty the Red says, ‘F*ck Arch, it’s hard enough just finding the winner, let alone picking 2nd and 3rd’, and as usual Rusty is dead right. It is much harder to pick the first 3 horses in a race in r
This is the reason that the average trifecta pool across all providers on all events – including, and in this case particularly in, harness racing events – is usually either slightly less than, or at worst within a ration of 1-1.5 greater than, the win pool on any given race, less than the than the aggregate of win bets in the race. , and in harness racing the average win:trifecta pool ration is somewhere in the range of 3:2, meaning that for every $3000 punters invest on a horse to win a race, about $2000 is bet on trifectas.
To illustrate the point let’s take a totally random snapshot of the betting pools. We’ll use a month ago as the example – Saturday the 9th of September 2017 – for no other reason that it’s a month ago, and we will look at the win and trifecta pools on races 3, 6 and 8 on UBET.
This is the 9th of September, races 3 and 6 and 8 in order of appearance. They have not been chosen for the reason that they illustrate my point; they do, but so do all the others. I just picked them randomly by asking my daughter to name three numbers between 1 and 8.
What do you see?
The trifecta pools are all less than the win pools aren’t they?
Now let’s jump forward to last Saturday night, the 30th of September, and just have a look at this.
Do you see what I see?
The trifecta pools are suddenly triple the win pools.
One – Money laundering. For the Chinese. Or those from Hong Kong, nudge nudge, wink wink. Has anybody seen Nathan Tinkler or Michael King today?
Two – Because the races with the even bigger trifecta pools – the guaranteed $50 and $100k pots – are being rigged.
Seen today’s front page story in the Courier-Mail yet?
I keep telling you that you hear it first here on itsnotnormalisit.com
Perhaps its time you started believing me.
To be continued ………….