This was race 1 at Albion Park trots on Saturday the 2nd of September 2017.
There are a number of important things to note about the race.
A. There is a guaranteed trifecta pool of $50 000.
B. There is a jackpot trifecta pool of $10 000 on the same race.
C. The total trifecta pool is $56 957, a huge amount for a harness event.
D. The trifecta pool is eight times larger than the win pool, and 5 times the size of all the other pools combined.
E. There are only three horses given a chance in the betting market. They are:
- Number 1 – Village Witch
- Number 3 – Watch Pulp Fiction
- Number 8 – Written in Red
F. The barrier draw positions mean that the second favorite Village Witch is drawn to lead from the inside of the front row, and the race favorite Written in Red – who starts from the inside of the second row – is drawn to receive a cozy run behind the leader and use the sprint lane in the straight to attempt to run Village Witch down. This is how most punters see the race panning out and race caller Chris Barsby agrees, for he has tipped the two horses to run first and second.
G. The third favorite Watch Pulp Fiction – yes, the same horse from the hot race last week that carried the jackpot pool – is drawn barrier 3. In usual circumstances its driver Chantal Turpin – yes her again – would have 3 primary tactical options. They are:
- To charge the horse out of the barrier and attempt to cross Village Witch and lead. This is the most attractive option, because the driver of Village Witch – Narissa McMullen; yes her again too – knows that the favorite is drawn behind her, and if she allows Watch Pulp Fiction to cross to the lead and takes a trail on its back she can both put Written in Red 3 back on the fence behind her, a position from which very few horses win, and she can use the sprint lane to gun down the leader in the straight.
- To begin quickly at the start and secure the position outside the leader, then either sit outside Village Witch in the ‘death seat’ throughout the race and thus control the speed and tempo at which it is run, and then attempt to out-tough the other horse in the straight, hoping that she has ensured that the race was run slow enough that her horse can sprint too quickly for the sprint lane horse (Written in Red) to make up the full sulky’s length start it will be giving her when it hits the sprint lane and is freed from the pocket it is in behind Village Witch
- To come out fast at the start so that she secures the position outside the leader and then immediately restrain Watch Pulp Fiction in the hope of encouraging another runner to come around her and give her a soft one out, one back trail throughout the race.
H. Narissa McMullen on Village Witch has only two options from the start , to lead or to take a sit behind Watch Pulp Fiction if it comes out fast and tries to cross her.
I. Written in Red’s driver Madi Dux has no options. She simply must ensure that her horse stays hard on Village Witch’s back and try to gun it down in the sprint lane. From her back row trailing draw on the fence she has nowhere else to go, other than to restrain heavily at the start and attempt to circle the field and win, which would be suicide.
J. The drivers of the other horses in the race have limited options due to the gulf in ability between their horses and the three favorites. They must simply attempt to secure a favorable trailing position and hope that the second and third favorites might attack each other in front and tire in the straight, thus allowing their horse – who has been sitting back conserving energy in the run – to storm over the top of them.
What I have just outlined for you above is a speed map, or tactical strategy, that drivers should employ during the race to maximise their chances of winning. All professional harness racing drivers and jockeys undertake the same exercise before a race, and so what I have told you is most certainly not unknown to the drivers of the three favorites, because each are full-time professionals who have been in and around harness racing their whole lives because their parents and grandparent have been prominent professional trot trainers and drivers for many decades.
This is how the race should have been run, but there is one more thing you need to know, and it is the key to everything that follows.
If a group of drivers in the race can secretly arrange team tactics that would result in the third favorite Watch Pulp Fiction winning and the two favorites Village Witch and Written in Red being knocked out of the placings, then they can win a small fortune from the guaranteed huge trifecta pool by placing bets – or having other people place bets for them – coupling Watch Pulp Fiction with the rest of the field of the field, as their investment for each trifecta unit would only be $42 – 1 x 7 x 6 – and very few punters would not have one or both of the favorites in their trifectas given their most favorable starting draw.
Could such a thing really happen?
Watch and learn sportsfans, watch and learn.
I wonder who it was who put the 1 x 7 x 6 trifecta combination bets on leaving the favorites out?
I wonder if the CCTV camera that monitors the tote windows at Albion Park might suddenly be found to have been defective on the evening of 2 September 2017?
I wonder if UBET’s computer system might malfunction and wipe all the data from race 1 at the Creek on that night
Get hold of those betting records Mr Qld Racing Integrity Commissioner Barnett, get hold of them right now, before they disappear.
To be continued ……….