ALGESTER

This is a safe Labor seat despite the one-term LNP member in the anti-Anna landslide. Any seat that someone as useless as Karen Struthers can hold for 12 years is pretty hard for any ALP candidate to lose, and Leanne Enoch has been one of the more impressive members of the class of 2015. She will win it on her ear.

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One Nation candidate Dazzling Daryl Lanyon, a country music playing draughtsman (above and at top) whose Mum (below) adores Pauline, adds a bit of colour to this show. In fact early in the big race he’s become my favorite candidate.

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ASPLEY

Labor have put up the Bartman – Bart Mellish, one of those prototype party hacks that all look alike – up as their candidate, which means that they have given up on this seat that nurse Bonny Barry held for them for a few terms at the turn of the century.

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This means that the LNP’s Tracey Davis just wins for the fourth time, and to be fair although she will never achieve any great heights the former admin worker and small business owner is not a bad local member either.

BANCROFT

A new seat in the arse end of Trenchtown, Brisvegas and its safe Labor territory.

Sitting member for Murrumba Chris Whiting, an insipid political junkie who’d been around at local level since he was in diapers prior to winning a spot in the House of Broken Dreams (Parliament) has given up his seat in an attempt to save the political career of Environment Minister Smiles (Steven Miles), but it’s not too much of a sacrifice because he wins the electorate named after Dustin Hoffman’s older shag in The Graduate by a country mile.

The only thing interesting about this one is how much the LNP candidate Kara Thomas and sitting ALP member for Nudgee Leanne Linard look like sisters.

BARRON RIVER

Our first real contest.

Paramedic Craig Crawford squeaked home on the back of funding and support from his union United Voice  and Palmer and Greens preferences last time to unseat the one term incumbent Michael Trout, but the LNP man is going around again and given the seats history of 25 years in ALP hands and 21 in that of the LNP it’s anyone’s race.

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I’m tipping that the preferences of One Nation candidate Andrew Schebella (above) will flow differently than they did last election when he was wearing Clive’s colours, and that this will be enough to return the seat to the LNP and put Crawford back in an ambulance. And a fine job I’m sure he will do too.

Bonney

Another new seat, this time down the Gold Coast.

The LNP candidate Sam O’Connor is a young prat from the Edwards clan of LNP blue-bloods who has won preselection in a bitter internal fight as a member of the happy clapping, expense rorting  Federal Member for Fadden Stuart Robert’s crew, and was his press secretary before deciding to run.

Funnily enough O’Connor – who’s the favorite to win, but not by a wide margin – looks like Leanne Linard the ALP member for Nudgee too. Is there some sort of hidden underground political clone factory operating in a clandestine location in Vegas at the moment or something?

Labor’s candidate is a bloke named Rohan Holzberger, an income protection insurance salesman to the unions who ran around for practice in Southport last time and did no good, but is a live chance this election with the changes in boundaries.

The Greens candidate is a no name, but the party is polling at around 10% in the electorate, and although the quasi-independent Ron Nightingale – a One Nation donkey in arse’s clothing – is making a lot of noise, it  their preferences that may well be the determining factor in the new seat.

Labor needs some type of policy or announcement that will resonate in the seat and bump their primary vote by about 3 or 4 percent to get their man Holzberger over the line in this one, and it could be vital given the projected tightness of the numbers on the floor of the House of Broken Dreams at the moment.

I might sit on the fence for a bit in this one and see if Labor are going to throw anything at it. If they don’t I reckon the LNP will get up by about a length, but let’s wait and watch in this one and I’ll make my call at the start of the last week of the campaign

Tally: Labor 2, LNP 2, Undecided 1