BROADWATER

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The LNP have shoe-horned its favorite young son David Crisafulli into this seat over the top of the walking disaster zone Verity Barton, the bird who refused to pay her tolls (what’s with these politicians and bills?) and as a result drove unlicensed for the better part of the two years she spent bullying the bejesus out of her poor staff.

No-one can blame the Blues for turfing this obnoxious and seemingly quite mad two term member, but replacing her with the former member for Mundingburra in Townsville who got smashed up by a childcare worker last time around is an exercise in both extreme cynicism and poor judgement, for Crisafulli’s nothing but a lightweight local government campaigner, not the future Premier that his oddball promoters imagine the former hack journalist to be.

Nevertheless he wins this seat by ten lengths.

Simpson’s donkey could too.

BUDERIM

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This seat has been held by the turncoat Steve Dickson since its creation in 2009, but he was LNP then and he is One Nation now, and is about to suffer the appropriate punishment for the treachery of changing sides in a war.

Dickson is a bore, one of those self-important ego-inflated morons who come to believe that they were elected due to their brilliance rather than because they had the letters L and N and P next to their name on the ballot paper, and he’s going to the way folk like Aden McLindon and Rob Messenger and Peter Slipper went in the last few years, which is Palooka Street, Nowheresvill, which is also exactly where they belong.

The LNP candidate – a former soldier turned bank johnny named Brent Mickelberg – will win the seat, and that would be all she wrote and a goddamn boring story except for two quite amazing facts.

One is that Mickelberg’s father Graeme – also an early career soldier – is a big wheel in the LNP and is considered the party’s Sunshine Coast power broker.

The second – drum roll please, Archie’s about to break an exclusive – is that Graeme Mickelberg is the brother of the three fellows who were (perhaps) wrongly convicted of on of Australia’s best known and most infamous crimes, the Perth Mint Swindle.

It’s too long a story to tell here so I will reprint a newspaper article about it, but in short 3 brothers named Ray, Peter and Brian Mickelberg were jailed for scamming the Perth Mint out of a sh*tload of gold bullion after being convicted on the trumped up evidence of 2 cops named Don Hancock and Tony Lewandowski.

Brian died but Ray served 8 1/2 years in jail and Peter just under 7, and they would have served a whole lot more except that Hancock got blown up by a car bomb planted by Bikies in revenge for the former cop’s cold blooded killing of their mate who had made sexual advances toward his daughter and threatened her when they were rebuffed.

After Hancock died his partner Lewandowski came forward and ‘fessed up that he personally had bashed the sh*t out of Peter Mickelberg, and then under Hancock’s direction had stitched the Mickelberg’s up with a brick (a verbal, or police-fabricated confession) because they didn’t have enough evidence otherwise to charge them.

Peter and Ray Mickelberg wasted a huge part of their life in jail, Lewandowski was charged but got off scot free after a court controversially found that he had been promised immunity from conviction by police, Graeme Mickelberg gave evidence at his brother’s trials then moved to Queensland and became a power broker in the LNP, and the convicted and then pardoned men’s nephew Brent is about to enter the House of Broken Dreams.

You couldn’t make a story like this one up if you tried.

Truth sure is a whole lot stranger than fiction.

BULIMBA

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Sitting member Di Farmer is a non-entity whose only asset is self-delusion, and is otherwise as useless as tits on a bull.

Farmer’s the archetypal party hack with no ability who has risen to power and glory via the Old Guard Faction ‘jobs for our mates’ ranks, and when the sitting Labor member Pat Purcell got on the piss and punched a public servant who had pissed him off she was gifted a soft run into a padded chair in the House of Broken Dreams as his replacement at the 2009 election.

At the time of her election Bulimba been a safe Labor seat since 1932.

Three years later she somehow managed to lose it, and for the next three she retreated to the safe haven of a political appointment to a six-figure government job, before coming back and knocking off the aptly named LNP man Aaron Dillaway at the 2015 election.

Despite Farmer’s lack of any ability whatsoever, thanks to the immutable law of Labor voting numbers she will win it again.

BUNDABERG

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This is a seat that I reckon will swing back to the LNP, which will create some real problems for Labor as they attempt to cobble together a majority to govern.

Bundy’s sitting member is the ALP’s Leanne Donaldson, who has been embroiled in a bucket load of controversy after refusing to pay either her rates or her car rego despite earning in excess of six grand a week.

Donaldson’s largely unliked by the local punters, and lost to the LNP sitting member Jack Dempsey on the primary vote last time around but got lucky on the back of PUP preferences that swept her over the line and into a padded seat in the House of Broken Dreams replete with a super-sized salary.

There’s no Palmer party this time round, but there is One Nation and that party’s candidate Dr Jane Truscott – who is not a medical doctor, but rather a nurse who holds a PhD – is likely to pick up PUP’s 11% of the vote and maybe a little bit more, and sling it to the LNP candidate David Batt, a copper turned local Councillor – instead of Labor like Clive’s candidate did at the last election.

If I’m right – and trust me I am, this sort of stuff is my forte and was once my daily bread – then Donaldson’s cactus and Batt’s an MP, and all of a sudden the ALP is starting to look like they may be too, because that’s 2 down and none gained and when you ain’t got nothin’ in the way of a majority to start with losing a couple is a catastrophe.

What’s becoming crystal clear to anyone with a pair of meat pies is that if Labor wants to be returned as the governing party they simply have to win a couple of new seats. It’s that or the back benches, and don’t you worry about that.

Where are they going to win them though?

And how?

BUNDAMBA

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Can anyone tell me why Joanne Miller has been re-endorsed as a Labor candidate? If the house is split and she gets an opportunity to hold the balance of power, or become part of a bloc that does, the self-important long-time Labor hack turned harridan will be out of the ALP party room quicker than you can say Bob Gibbs Gifted Me The Safe Seat.

Miller will win Bundamba in a canter, and the only betting is on how long the bolshie socialist landlord who owns five houses and negatively gears them all stays.

The battlers of Bundamba deserve better than the absolutely certain betrayal that lies just ahead.

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The only other thing of interest in this seat is that Patricia Petersen(above), who polled just three and a bit percent in the recent Ipswich mayoralty by-election race, goes around in an election for the thirteenth time after being pounded in her previous dozen attempts to fulfill her manifest destiny of having her picture in the paper every week.

Will it be thirteenth time lucky for the crazed attention seeker?

Do pigs fly, or Brisbane Racing Club Directors act with integrity and in the best interests of their members?

Ha ha ha.

Tally: LNP 5 – Labor 4 – Undecided 1