Joan Sheldon’s old seat. I was for a brief moment when we worked together at Legal Aid infatuated with her absolutely beautiful daughter Kate, but sadly – or perhaps sagely; I don’t know how I’d get on with an LNP pollies daughter outside of the dream world – its wasn’t reciprocated.
One Nation replace KAP as the minor party alternative, and will probably poll better and pull about 8% of the vote, which must be music to sitting LNP member Mark McArdle’s ears because it makes him even more of a sure thing than he already was.
Conflict of Interest Disclosure 1
A few years ago I used to work with the sitting member Don Brown – in fact I think I may have even been his boss for a short period – and have socialised with him on a number of occasions. My reckoning that he is an excellent local member who works hard for his community is an arms length views based on the facts rather than my personal fondness for the bloke, as is my estimation that he’ll pick up at least a junior ministry this time round if Labor are reelected.
Brown will win the seat with an increased majority and, barring an unforeseen future unfavorable redistribution, will hold it for life. Good on him and good on the people of Capalaba too, they’ve lucked on a politician who is 100% committed to his semi-bayside electorate – there can’t be too many around who actually like that crap neck of the woods with the straight dog track can there? – and extremely able, and most of all as honest as the day is long.
One Nation supporters haven’t been so fortunate.
Their candidate Paul Taylor – the only Indian fella born in Bangalore and named after a fish – doesn’t even live in the electorate. He’s a Shailer Park boy, which means that he should be running against the Beefcake in Springwood, but for some reason he’s decided to have a crack at Mick De Brenni’s factional stable mate and long-time work colleague Brown instead.
I wonder if Taylor will disclose his unrecorded criminal history to the voters? There are a lot of families in the area with teenage kids, so I’m sure the peeps in the electorate would love to know about the Fish punching an apprentice in the face and being charged and fined for it when he made an involuntary appearance at the Holland Park Magistrates Court a few years ago. They might also be interested in the name that the Fish appeared under, because my mail is that it certainly wasn’t Taylor.
Rivers run deep don’t they, and fish often get cast in their own nets.
Conflict of Interest Disclosure 2
Labor’s candidate in this seat Phil Anthony is an old mate of mine and I went to school with his cousin Dr John, the philosopher. That was however back in the days when we were both hanging around the Magistrates court doing lawyerly sort of stuff and beating off the young female cub court reporters, and well before Pothole Phil went mad and decided to that he wanted to become a Labor candidate.
He’s going around for practice in this one.
This is Tim the Toolman territory, and the LNP’s bobble head’s seat in the House of Broken Dreams has a reserved sign on it and a silver spoon waiting on the arm rest for the posh little schoolboy who never grew up’s return.
Old National Party turf from way back, in it’s various incarnations this seat has only been held by the ALP once and that was in 1953 by Les Diplock, a schools inspector – and, unusually for one of Santamaria’s men, a Protestant and Mason – who jumped ship and became a member of the DLP during his second term.
Pat Weir won this one with an absolute majority last time around and despite some possible leakage of votes to One Nation those ballot papers will be a boomerang in the form of preferences and he won’t be losing it in 2017.
Billy Gordon the maintenance-dodging one-term MP steps out of politics and doesn’t recontest this time around. He’s replaced by Cynthia Lui, a distant relative of Robert the former West Tigers and Cowboys halfback who was touted as the next big thing but never impressed me as a top level player, even before his career imploded when he bashed his partner and copped a ridiculously light sentence of a good behavior bond.
KAP polled okay here last time pulling about 12.5% of the primary votes, and with a different candidate and a rising anti-south east corner sentiment in North Qld I reckon they might nudge around the 20% mark.
It won’t be enough to win them the seat but when you throw a One Nation candidate into the mix it becomes volatile, and the preference flow might just favour the LNP candidate Penny Johnson enough to get her over the line.
This is one of those chance your arm tips and its made without any real confidence at all but I’ll plump for LNP and cop the bagging when I’m probably proved wrong.
Ronald ‘Porky’ Pigdon is Pauline’s candidate, and as with most of the silent majority of Australians, Ron is not happy with the way Australia is heading. He has spent his life working hard and looking after his family and it would be easier for him to carry on with his life and to not get involved in trying to sustain this great way of life in this great southern land. However, Ron has reached a point where he feels that a number of unhealthy influences are being perpetuated from a number of sources and will in time affect the lives and safety of his children and their children’s children, so it’s time to stand up & be counted and show that the strength and will of the majority of people want the same things for their children’s children as he does.
A number of unhealthy influences are being perpetuated from a number of sources?
Sh*t Porky, tell us more.
What are they?
Financial planner and LNP caucus non-entity Michael Crandon nails the quadrella by being elected for the fourth time, although no-one really knows what he does between elections. Nobody really cares either, which is the beauty of a safe seat.
This is the old Ashgrove seat renamed after Dr Lilian Cooper, a turn of the 20th century lezzo whose old man was a peer of the realm and Captain of the Royal Marines, these days Prince Harry’s crew.
Young Lilian met her soulmate Josephine Bedford at Uni whilst study medicine and fell her in love with her, but the pressure from polite society on a couple of sheilas who openly slept in a shared bed was a bit much so the pair pissed off to the old Moreton Bay colony and spent the rest of their lives together in BrisVegas, which was our good luck because they were an absolute cracker of a pair.
When WW1 erupted both Lilian and Jo were keen to serve the cause in the Aussie army but the Generals wouldn’t let them enlist because they had tits, so Lilian – who was well known for swearing like a trooper and driving her car, one of Brisbane’s first motor vehicles, around town at break neck speeds – told the old codgers to get f*cked, and the couple joined the Scottish army instead, serving with such distinction in the medical and field ambulance corps that they were both awarded the prestigious Order of St Sava for their efforts.
When they returned to Vegas the couple bought a flash house up on the hill above the Kangaroo Point Hotel where John Mayne murdered a cashed up bushie and stole his cash, which the psycho then used to parlay his way into becoming Brisbane’s richest man. Josephine Bedford didn’t need to roll any drunks to buy her house though because she was the heiress to a fortune and had plenty.
Beford went on to found the Creche and Kindergarten Association (C&K) and play a leading role in the fight against animal cruelty, and Cooper became a much loved senior doctor at the Mater Hospital. When the couple died they donated their stately home to become a hospice, and the modern day St Vincent’s hospital (formerly Mt Olivet) is built on the donated site where the lifetime lovers home used to be.
Kate Jones has been beaten once in an election and she won’t be a again. Not even a redistribution can keep the locals from keeping Kate.
In a good year with a swing on Labor might be a chance to regain the wicked witch of the South Merri Rose’s old seat, but this ain’t that year.
Jann Stuckey retains the seat and when parliament resumes enters the House of Broken Dreams as a 5 term MP and walks straight into a ministry if her side wins/
This is one seat that I would have been targeting if I was a Labor strategist, but for some curious reason they haven’t. Putting up a lawyer for the MUA as your candidate doesn’t ooze confidence, and I guess the halfwits running the ALP campaign believe that the happy clapping former NRL ref and current sitting member Tim Mander is a certainty.
He’s not. This seat has been held by Labor for all but 10 of its 45 year history, and after the distribution of Green preferences there were only a thousand ballots difference between the ALP candidate and Mander in the 2 party preferred vote, which means that if Labor could swing about 500 votes back they could win the seat, particularly given that there is no One Nation candidate contesting.
Given Labor’s ill-thought seeming surrender Mander will probably take home the bacon, but it would not shock me at all if there is an upset.
Mark ‘Funky’ Furner was shoehorned into this seat last time over the top of a clown named Andrew McMicking, who puts crap on social media sledging dead babies grubs and unsuccessfully sues authors such as your own for calling him out on it, claiming that I’ve ruined his political career.
It’s a pretty hard one to prove that, especially when you don’t actually have a career in politics and have never actually made it past the pre-selection stage putting his name in the draw for almost everything except Grand Poobah of Gayndah.
One day it might start to dawn on him that he’s not wanted by even his own party, but then again perhaps not. McMicking is a bloke who lives in denial and spends time rearranging his pink shirts in the closet while the wife’s out after all.
Furner, an Old Guard faction member and useless former one-term Senator whose political achievements are zero except sucking on the public purse, got smashed up on the primary vote last time by the fundamentalist christian Dale Shuttleworth, who won 2000 more votes but ended up getting tipped out by 450 after the Greens preferences flowed 2800 to 480 his way.
You’d expect that, but it really the Palmer United Party than sunk Shuttleworth because their candidate Mark Taverner – a dodgy bastard with suspiciously close connections to outlaw bikies who couldn’t have been elected anyway because the Electoral Commission discovered he was an undischarged bankrupt won about 750 votes and they split approximately 300 to Labor, 250 to the Greens and only 200 to Shuttleworth, which was just enough to get Funky’s nose over the line.
There’s no PUP candidate this time around, so you can be sure that Marky Mark and the Funky Bunch will be praying the rosary all night long seeking divine deliverance of those 750 votes over to Labor because if they don’t get them it’s very likely that Furner will be unemployed on Monday.
I reckon though that with the advantage of incumbency Funky might just sneak home, so I’ll give this seat to Labor, but not with any degree of confidence at all.
The mainstream media are calling Toowoomba North the bellweather seat it in this election but I wouldn’t pay two cents for the opinions or political judgement of the horde of hacks travelling around with the Princess and the Toolman on their respective campaign buses.
This seats the one that will tell you who wins government.
Don’t you worry about that.
This seat has changed hands back and forward a couple of times and in its 16 year history the record is 8 years each to the left and right, although for three of those years then member Dr Alex Douglas – who’d quit the LNP after having a hissy fit about not being appointed a Minister by Can Do – seemed not to know whether he was Arthur of Martha and sat variously as an Independent, as a member of PUP, and then as Independent again before being carved up at the 2015 election when he only drew a paltry 12% of the vote.
There’s a lesson in that for the happy clapping fat-boy hypocrite from the north George Christiansen, who has been threatening to jump ship from the Federal Liberal Party constantly for the past couple of years.
What is it with these clowns who delude themselves into believing that they were elected because they’re just wonderful, rather than accept the truth which is that the only reason their lard arses are sitting on a leather chair in the House of Broken Dreams and they’re draining $200k a year from the public purse is because they wore a blue or red badge at the election.
Anyway, the long and short of Gaven is that the LNP’s Sid Cramp cruises to the finish line a space in front and wins under double wraps.
Long time Independent MP, former Mayor of Calliope, friend of One Nation and opponent of gun reform laws Liz Cunningham’s old seat is a gimme for Labor, who only ever lost it because their candidate against Cunningham in the 1995 election Leo Zussino, now in his second incarnation as the boss of his beloved Gladstone Port, threw too many people out of his father-in-law’s pub up on the hill in town and as a consequence lost a whole bunch of hungover votes.
Glenn Butcher re-elected with absolute majority just like last time is my tip.
Did you know that there are actually 11 mountains and 2 hills that make up the Glass House Mountains? Not many do. See how many you can get without Googling.
One Nation are running a candidate of Patriot-passion heritage named Tracey Bell-Henselin. I’m not sure where exactly you find the nation of Patriot-passion on the world map, but given the Teutonic surname you’d have to imagine that if you poked around the Bavarian Alps you might have a bit of luck. Perhaps you can could even try yodeling.
The lass from Partriot-passion is of course a happy clapper – that area between Caboolture and Caloundra is full of them – and has only one policy for Queensland.
She reckons it’s bullet-proof.
I reckon she’s in the wrong party is she’s looking for it.
Labor candidate Brent Hampstead’s name will be familiar to a lot of Vegas music lovers of a certain vintage because he edited the uber alt-cool at the street magazine Time Out back in the early 80’s, and a bloody good job he did of it too. It was a great read.
I hope Hampstead’s got a few back copies in the dunny magazine rack to keep him entertained for the next four years because there’s no leather chair in the house for him this time round unless the incumbent LNP MP Andrew Powell starts running around the polling booths tomorrow pinching ballot paper wielding punters on the arse.
Tally: LNP 18 – ALP 8 – Independent 1 – Undecided 1